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从黄金特性、黄金供需形势对黄金价格的影响进行了详细地分析,结果表明:在供给方面,生产成本上升,供给量有限;在需求方面,短期要关注风险,中期要关注全球货币实际利率,长期要关注中国黄金市场完善和建设。同时,提出了2016年的黄金市场投资策略,指出了黄金中期走强,把握政治事件和货币政策,关注黄金投资机会的建议。

The paper elucidates the effect gold characteristics and gold supply and demand have on gold prices.It concludes that the production cost of the supply side rises,which constrains supply;as for the demand side,it is nec-essary to pay attention to risks in the short term,effective interest rate of international currency in the medium term, and development of Chinese gold market in the long term.At the same time,the paper puts forward the investment pol-icy of gold market in 2016,points out that gold will rise in the medium term,and advise that political events and mone-tary policy be followed as well as gold investment opportunities.

参考文献

[1] 谭文培.黄金价格的影响因素分析[J].湖南工业大学学报,2011(02):104-108.
[2] 杨柳勇;史震涛.黄金价格的长期决定因素分析[J].统计研究,2004(6):21-24.
[3] 付丹;梅雪;张晖.黄金价格与通货膨胀相关性的实证分析[J].黄金,2009(1):4-7.
[4] 杨叶.黄金价格和石油价格的联动分析[J].黄金,2007(02):4-7.
[5] 郑秀君;刘建强.我国黄金市场文献综述、市场结构及发展前景[J].改革与战略,2010(5):179-182.
[6] 张婧.基于时间序列的金银比价预测研究[J].商情,2012(20):72-72.
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