根据筒节和轧辊的几何关系，得到了筒节上下表面接触弧长的几何方程；根据现场数据和有限元方法，得到了筒节上下表面接触弧长的变形方程；结合几何方程和变形方程，并基于赫希柯克公式计算了考虑弹性压扁的筒节接触弧长。由于筒节外端对轧制力的影响远远大于接触摩擦的影响，结合接触弧长模型和材料变形抗力模型，基于现场数据和优化算法，优化得到了外端应力状态影响系数，从而建立了大型筒节轧制力预报模型。结果表明：上下辊的接触弧长不等，上辊接触弧长稍大于下辊接触弧长，上辊压下量大于下辊压下量，上辊和下辊的接触弧长之比约为1.3左右；将模型应用到筒节轧制中，计算轧制力与实测轧制力平均误差为9.2%，模型计算精度较高，能够满足工业应用要求。
A prediction model of hot rolling force in heavy cylinder rolling was established. According to the geometric relationship of heavy cylinder and rolls in the rolling process,the geometric equation of asymmetric contact arc lengths of up roll and down roll were obtained. According to the field data and finite element method,the deformation equation of contact arc lengths of up roll and down roll was obtained. Based on the geometric equation and deformation equation,the contact arc lengths of up roll and down roll can be calculated. Because the ratio of contact arc length and average thick-ness is very small,the influence of cylinder outer end is bigger than that of the contact friction,based on field data and op-timization algorithm,the stress influence coefficient of cylinder outer end was obtained. Further,the prediction model of hot rolling force in heavy cylinder rolling was established. Calculated results show that:The contact arc lengths of up roll and down roll are not equal,the contact arc length of up roll is bigger than that of down roll,the ratio of contact arc lengths of up roll and down roll is about 1.3,at the same time,the reduction of up roll is bigger than that of the down roll;Applied the model proposed in the heavy cylinder rolling,the error of calculated rolling force and measured rolling force is 9.2%,the calculation accuracy can meet the requirements of industrial application.
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