基于全过程分析和情景分析建立耦合模型,从中国钢铁工业的发展模式和政策角度,结合中国当前成熟的节能减碳技术,分析中国钢铁工业CO2的低碳发展模式和相关政策,并探讨未来中国钢铁工业CO2的最优减排量和优化技术路线.分析结果表明:若控制好经济发展和钢产量速度,实施提出的减碳技术路线,与2010年相比到2020年中国钢铁工业在焦化、烧结、炼铁、转炉、电炉和轧钢工序单位产品可减少CO2排放量分别为77.33、4.4、7.13、54.36、116.2和42kg/t;若同时保证相关末端处理技术的实施,到2020年吨钢CO2排放量为1.49t.可见,建立中国钢铁工业的低碳发展模式,主要在于促进相关成熟技术利用的政策调整,该发展模式可为中国钢铁行业的持续发展提供一定的理论依据.
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